The British Middle East Eye website published an article for the Libyan special envoy to the countries of the Maghreb, Jumah al-Qumati, in which he tried to explore the chances of achieving peace in Libya and the possibility of reaching a permanent political solution in 2021 that puts an end to the civil war that has plagued the country since Years.
In his article, Al-Qumati believes that the chances of reaching a final political solution that achieve peace and stability in Libya depend to a large extent on the results of the current political process led by the United Nations between the parties to the Libyan crisis.
He also believes that the broad outlines set by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Tunisia, specifically the issue of organizing national elections throughout the country in December 2021, represent the best opportunity for Libyans to unify their political and sovereign institutions and achieve a better future for their country.
Al-Qumati expressed his optimism that the year 2021 would bring good news to the Libyans on the economic level, especially in light of the possibility of reunification of the Central Bank of Libya, adding that urgent economic reforms, such as unifying the foreign exchange rate and supporting the Libyan dinar, would greatly improve the social and economic conditions of Libyan citizens. .
He explained that the current conditions in Libya differ from what they were at the beginning of 2020, when retired Major General Khalifa Haftar launched an all-out war that ended with the failure of his military campaign on the capital, Tripoli.
Al-Qumati believes that the chances of achieving lasting peace in Libya are directly related to foreign interference in the conflict, as the intervention of countries such as the United Arab Emirates, France, Egypt and Russia deepened the crisis by supporting the coup attempt by Haftar, and this means that reaching a political solution will be difficult to achieve unless The international community is showing a real desire to stop this illegal interference.
He also indicated that the mechanisms of the conflict had changed greatly in 2020 after Turkey and the United Nations-recognized Government of National Accord signed, in November 2019, two memoranda of understanding that opened the way for Ankara’s military intervention in order to help the government confront Haftar’s militias and mercenaries. Supported from abroad.
The author believes that the Turkish intervention changed the balance of power in the interest of the Government of National Accord, and enabled it to regain strategic areas in western Libya, including Al-Wattayah Air Base and the city of Tarhuna, and forced Haftar’s forces and mercenaries supported by the UAE to retreat to the borders of Sirte.
Despite these positive indicators that enhance the chances of reaching a peaceful solution, the prominent Libyan politician believes that the ceasefire agreement signed by the conflicting Libyan parties in Geneva in October 2020 was a fragile agreement, as it was not clear yet that the implementation of the main agreed provisions was possible. Such as the departure of mercenaries and foreign fighters from the Libyan territories within 90 days.
The ceasefire agreement coincided with the resumption of the political track led by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya through the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, which Tunisia hosted in September 2020.
At the time, the head of the Government of National Accord, Fayez al-Sarraj, announced his intention to resign from his post and hand over his duties to the new leadership, which was expected to be formed before the end of last October.
But the formation of the new executive authority is still difficult to achieve, according to the writer. The talks have so far failed to reach consensual solutions on a unified governing body, and expectations indicate that Al-Sarraj will remain in his position until a comprehensive political agreement is reached.
Al-Qumati believes that one of the most important developments on the Libyan arena in 2020 is Russia’s stabilization of its feet in the country, militarily and politically, without facing any serious position from the United States of America, the European Union and the international community in general.
On the other hand, the European Union countries were not able to form a unified position on the conflict in Libya due to internal disputes, which became more evident with the departure of the United Kingdom.
The writer suggested that the US policy towards Libya in 2021 will witness some change under the administration of President-elect Joe Biden, as it is expected to take a tougher stance against the Russian military intervention in the country.
Al-Qumati expected that the ceasefire agreement signed in Geneva would continue, despite its fragile nature, because Haftar no longer holds the reins until he re-launches his military campaign, after Russia tightened its grip on his militia and became controlling all strings of the game according to his opinion.
He also expected that Russia would not risk entering into a direct military confrontation with Turkey on Libyan soil, and that Moscow would tend to support political dialogue with the aim of reaching a comprehensive solution, even if Haftar is not part of the solution.