The New York Times says that there are at least five things that do not guarantee that Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s victory over President Donald Trump will lead him to the White House. In an article by Thomas Edsal Biden and his allies should be concerned about these things:
1 / Trump’s base of non-alumni whites is more active:
The first of these is that there are indications that Trump’s support base – whites who are not college graduates – are more active and committed to voting this year than in major Democratic constituencies, and there is also evidence that the polls do not reflect this.
2 / Latin Florida and Arizona:
The second is that Latinos, who play a major role in the outcome of several crucial states – Arizona and Florida, for example – have shown less support for Biden than previous Democratic candidates, and many Hispanic voters appear to resist any campaign that identifies them as “colored”.
3 / Mail voting:
Voting by mail is expected to be higher among Democrats than Republicans, which exposes their ballots to more disapproval than Republicans, a much more common fate when mailed votes than to in-person voting.
4 / The general vote of Congress:
As of early July, the general congressional vote showed Democrats favored by more than 10 points; But it has since been reduced to 6 points.
5 / The Debates:
The debates will test Biden’s resilience in 3 90-minute fights against an opponent known for brutal personal attacks.
The writer adds that there are other factors, such as that the Republican Party conducts an effective campaign to suppress the electorate, or that Trump and his advisers will devise new mechanisms to pave the way for victory, during a turbulent year that witnessed Trump’s impeachment by Congress, the emergence of the Corona epidemic, the economic recession, and the emergence of a stronger life. Blacks matter, ”one thing has remained constant and that is Biden’s superiority over Trump even in the suburbs that are the main arena of the election battle.
Edsal points out that voter registration increased by 6 points during the past August compared to the 2016 cycle. But net registration for Democrats decreased by 38%, and this is about 150,000 additional Democratic votes less than it was added in 2016, while registration among whites without university degrees continued to rise, reaching 46%, and among people of color by only 4%.
Trump is more organized
This gap becomes even more apparent when we realize that over the past four years, the number of non-college whites has increased by only 1% in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the number of people of color has increased by 13%.
Despite this, the writer concludes, Biden remains ahead of Trump 6 weeks before polling day; But Trump is more organized than he was 4 years ago, and there is a widespread belief that he and the Republican Party will not allow fair elections.