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After a year of sanctions and assassinations … What does 2021 hold for Iran?

The Iranians are waiting anxiously for 2021, perhaps putting an end to the crises that gripped the country during 2020, which began with the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, General Qassem Soleimani, in an American raid near Baghdad International Airport, and ended with the assassination of the prominent nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhryzadeh near the Iranian capital, and Tehran accused the Israeli entity To stand behind the operation.

And after the Corona pandemic exacerbated the successive losses on the Iranian economy during the past year due to the continuous US sanctions since 2018, the Iranian street is looking for a breakthrough in the level of living conditions amid fears that the country will carry an indispensable war.

In this report, Al Jazeera Net explores the views and analyzes of a group of Iranian researchers interested in the most prominent political, military, economic and social issues, each of whom summarizes his vision of the most important developments expected during the year 2021 in Iran.

The Iranian street is looking for a breakthrough in the (European) living situation

Abbas Aslani – Researcher at the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies:

We will not hear anything about Iran’s return to the negotiating table according to the Western vision during 2021, because Iran did not leave the nuclear negotiations, but rather Washington has torpedoed what was agreed upon in the framework of the International Six-Party, and Tehran will deal with calls to save the nuclear deal based on this experience.

Regarding international demands to expand the nuclear agreement, Iran has made a final decision not to negotiate changing the terms of the agreement, its missile program and regional files, but it is ready to participate in a dialogue aimed at Washington’s return to the nuclear agreement and lifting President Donald Trump’s administration’s sanctions on Iran, and this is what we expect will happen this year. Next.

The return of the Joe Biden administration to the nuclear deal will not happen overnight. Rather, it will take a long time that may extend to several months after the Iranian presidential elections scheduled for June 18, 2021, whose results we believe will not significantly affect the nuclear agreement, but the current will win The governor in the presidency to escalate tension with the West relatively.

Cut off from the Iranian navy in international waters near the Gulf (Iranian press)

Hussein Kanani Moghaddam – former leader of the Revolutionary Guard and researcher in military affairs

The Iranians may receive 2021 in the event of a war crisis that will be triggered by the Zionist-American bilateral alliance led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump.

We see the Middle East region on the verge of a large-scale war, in which Iran will be the main target, but it will burn everything and everything in the end.

Israel is actively seeking to implicate the next US president in waging war on Iran to prevent Washington from returning to the nuclear agreement and to prevent any possible US-Iranian understanding in the coming period.

The plots of the duo, Netanyahu Trump, are proceeding in full swing in order to fabricate new crises to drag Iran into war, and to justify President Trump’s will not to hand over power to his successor Biden in accordance with US law.

Tehran is preparing for such a war in which Tehran’s allies will participate, and we expect to liberate the Golan Heights from the Israeli occupation during it.

The next confrontation will be on several fronts to drain the enemy’s energies, but if he makes use of an unrecognized weapon, he will regret it.

We expect the continued US and Israeli efforts to carry out sabotage operations inside the country, and friction with the Iranian military presence in the Gulf waters.

Majid Zouari – Director of the Institute of International Relations:
International pressure will continue on Iran during 2021, but at a lower rate than it was, and the huge amount of sanctions imposed by Trump on Tehran cannot be lifted in a short period of time, and the Iranian economy will continue to suffer due to the repercussions of the sanctions that will contribute to a large extent in the deterioration of the living situation.

The spread of corruption in the Iranian administrative system will fuel the fire of the repercussions of the US sanctions, and we expect the outbreak of protests to improve the living situation because the people cannot bear the high cost of living and unemployment caused by the Corona pandemic more than it is.

We believe that the street will express its frustration and despair at improving the living situation by objecting to the election results or to another event that may hurt their feelings.

We do not expect the Rouhani government to take any tangible step to contain popular discontent during the remaining months of its life, and in return, the next government will strive to relieve the repercussions of foreign pressures, which is likely to deal more with the next US administration regarding de-escalation in the nuclear file.

Iranian hopes are high that the next US administration will return to the nuclear deal (Reuters-Archive)

Saeed Laylaz – Professor of Economics at Beheshti University:

Perhaps the most prominent thing we expect for the year 2021 is the resurgence of the Iranian economy, and its continuation of the pace of development that stopped shortly after the outbreak of the Coronavirus.

The rise of the national economy is inevitable and has nothing to do with US policies towards Iran. In addition, we will witness an increase in Iranian exports abroad, especially non-oil goods.

We will witness the return of foreign investments to the Iranian market during the next year after the US administration returns to the nuclear deal and lifted part of the sanctions imposed on many Iranian sectors. The return of foreign companies may precede any possible understanding between Washington and Tehran.

The value of the Iranian currency will improve against the US dollar, and the Tehran Stock Exchange will emerge from the recession that it experienced during 2020.

We expect to reduce the differences between Tehran and Washington next year and to lift the sanctions on Iranian oil exports, especially in light of talk about a possible return of the next US administration to the nuclear agreement, and if the dispute continues, Tehran will find alternative solutions to sell its oil and circumvent US sanctions, as happened during the last period.

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