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Beware second waves of COVID-19 if lockdowns eased early: study

Beware second waves of COVID-19 if lockdowns eased early: study

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26 comments

  1. A second or even third wave is entirely plausible. They’ve been saying this since the early stages of the pandemic. I think the Spanish Flu had the same thing… Everyone thought they were finally safe, then WHAM fucker comes back and wipes out a few million more…

  2. Are we even done with the first wave?

  3. It doesn’t matter when – it’s going to come back until there is a vaccine or everybody has had it and built up immunity.

  4. Can someone explain why there is such a wide variation in how people respond when they get the virus? The Icelandic study indicates that half of the people who have the virus have no symptoms at all, yet for some, it causes death rather rapidly. I know age and general health are factors, but the virus can and does kill relatively young and apparently healthy people? Are people getting different strains of the disease, or is it all just a matter of the resilience of the immune system? I really don’t get it. Thanks for any info. you may have discovered. Links are appreciated.

  5. It says eased ‘early’, but how early is early? I feel like unless its full lockdown for over a year or some other insane period there is gonna be a resurgence. Just gonna have to accept that it’l probably happen

  6. I’m pretty sure there will be more waves no matter what. Unless we stay in lockdown for the whole year at least before a vaccine can be implemented.

    If anyone has more info on this let me know. I’ve been trying to find up to date projections for how experts think the coronavirus will play out in the US. Total number of expected deaths, timeline, all that good stuff.

    I’ve found this report from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team but ideally there should be a site where the projections are updated and region specific.

    [https://assets.weforum.org/editor/xMcVcR9GqimRRWAOX7Jc7Cl5srOz9ddk0-l78jhgnt4.JPG](https://assets.weforum.org/editor/xMcVcR9GqimRRWAOX7Jc7Cl5srOz9ddk0-l78jhgnt4.JPG)

    > Figure 4: Illustration of adaptive triggering of suppression strategies in GB, for R0=2.2, a policy of all four interventions considered, an “on” trigger of 100 ICU cases in a week and an “off” trigger of 50 ICU cases. The policy is in force approximate 2/3 of the time. Only social distancing and school/university closure are triggered; other policies remain in force throughout. Weekly ICU incidence is shown in orange, policy triggering in blue.

    [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

    But it seems it will be a while before the thinktanks will have their full reports available.

  7. Governments should use this time now to ramp up capacity for testing, and then going door to door to identify those who are sick. Then track down people they may have infected. Then all those people need to be in isolation until two negative tests.

  8. I’m going nuts here trying to figure out what to do. My parents are in pretty decent shape considering their age, but have all the risk factors pretty much. they have lots of grandchildren and basically looking at wasting an entire precious year of their lives not being able to see them? or anybody? what the fuck are we supposed to do?

  9. The second teide is usually stronger, we should not let the guard down.

    Just like in Tsunamis… and boxing, the second hit hits strongest.

  10. While I firmly believe that it’s unrealistic to hold the quarantine for 6-12 months like some have suggested, one month at a minimum is an absolute must. It’s been, what, two weeks for most of the world? Less than that? There’s plenty of people who are sick, but haven’t shown any symptoms yet. Going back to normal less than 2 weeks later is lunacy.

  11. I have been listening to a lot of doctors and infectious disease experts and they pretty much all say that a second wave is highly likely. It doesn’t really matter if we ease up quarantine or not.

    But the good news is that they all say that the second (and potentially third) will be progressively smaller. So it won’t be nearly as big of a deal.

    This virus isn’t particularly deadly or dangerous. It’s similar to a standard flu in that regard. The reason this one is so troublesome is that it’s very contagious and can overwhelm the hospitals.

    And the second wave is probably going to be well within the capacity of hospitals. So it likely won’t be such a big issue.

  12. In the US it will take 1 million cases, total collapse of the health system and 20,000 dead and 3 waves for Trump to finally implement a national lockdown

  13. We’re going to live a COVID driven life until a vaccine is brought to market. We’re talking 2021 or 2022.

  14. good time to take complete samples to see who already had it and recovered without ever being reported to begin with… my guess is many many many more than the reported 50% already had it and recovered without even knowing it… would be a nice stat to know if 1000 people randomly tested that 700 already had and recovered from it.

  15. The plan is multiple small waves. It is not going to just go away, the population has to develop herd immunity. Flattening the curve is about extending the time this is being done. There will be more waves, it is the only way out. Hiding for a month or 6 months doesn’t make it go away.

  16. I have seen this posted a lot lately.

    First-off, as far as I can tell, these are studies, not CDC recommendations and not verified to be proven in the wild.

    Second, any time we use now to reduce infections and quarantine is a chance to increase manufacturing of necessary items such as masks, ventilators, etc… So that if we have to deal with a 2nd wave, we can be better prepared.

    We can also go into quarantine and then slowly lift it and see what happens. It doesn’t have to be a guessing game, we can manage how this ebbs and flows. It just really hard to manage that and the economy as well.

    My personal great fear is that this information is being pushed for political reasons, i.e. Trump’s statements about this being over for Easter, or that the summer will kill it off. I’m only taking my direction right now from the WHO and CDC and taking EVERY study and research article with a grain of salt because so many of them have been proven to be false information already.

    This is a good read about the misinformation surrounding the coronavirus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic

  17. We basically want to ease lock downs as early as we can while avoiding overloading the Healthcare system. If we get past the peak and cases drop to 25% of peak (or whatever the number is according to the model) then it might be time to reopen. More cases are going to happen after reopening, we just have to make sure it’s a manageable amount. I’d really like to see a partial reopening where 60+ and those with conditions still quarantine (basically what the UK did, but, you know, after we safely develop some degree of herd immunity).

  18. Tell that to employee herders. They’d rather cull employees like fruit gone bad than permit WFH where possible.

  19. “There was a study done. *In a lab.*”

  20. fearmongers gonna fearmonger. What else is new?

  21. The way back to normalcy is through testing. Taiwan tested everyone. We in the US not only dont test, but our test has a 2-5 day turnaround which is absurd. I read that a company came up with a 45 minute test. To me that is the gamechanger. Test everyone. Find and isolate. That will allow more people to move freely. Hell, test at the airports. Everyone must go through TSA and test. Test positive, you’re booted from your flight and must isolate. Stop the spread.

  22. This is exactly what’s going to happen. Companies will start to panic and pull people back in mid-April, and most of those workers won’t have afforded to pay for being tested, and will set off the next curve.

  23. Second wave? Is the first one over?

  24. Already seeing the states in the US that adopted prevention measures late getting hit kind of hard. If we eased restrictions now, it’d explode.

  25. We aren’t even close to getting over the first wave in the US and they are talking about easing restrictions.

    Seriously, fuck off, US leadership. I don’t give a fuck about the stock portfolios of the 1%. Fuck right off.

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