The dynamic of American society in recent decades has prompted the immigration of nearly 60 million people from mainly Catholic Central America and non-Christian Asia, to make America and its society more diverse and different from what many expect.
According to the Government Census Bureau, the population of America is currently 330 million, of whom 60.4% are white, compared to 18.3% (61 million) Latinos, 13.4% (44 million) are black Africans, and 5.9% (19.5 million) are Asians, the rest is diverse.
The changing nature of the country’s demography is accompanied by a change in the electoral reality, to reflect the increasing importance of ethnic minorities in the 2020 and future elections, with the population of minorities increasing at rates greater than the rates of the increase in the white population, in addition to the arrival of nearly a million immigrants annually by legal means to the United States.
Exceptional events for minorities
The years of President Donald Trump’s rule have witnessed his administration tightening up the issues of regular and irregular immigration, which sent negative messages to the Latin minority, and Trump used racist language to talk about Mexican immigrants, and was determined to build a separation barrier between the US and Mexican borders in order to prevent illegal immigration.
Last summer saw massive demonstrations and protests due to the killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, by a white policeman, and then a lot of violence erupted.
Trump tried to exploit the position and appear as a candidate for law and order, accusing Democrats of supporting the chaos and violent protests.
For their part, the Democrats worked to get closer to ethnic minorities and embrace police reforms.
On the other hand, the killing of George Floyd prompted blacks to double their voter registration efforts in order to have a greater role in the 2020 elections. The Democratic Party machine strongly supports efforts to register black citizens in electoral registers in particular in swing states.
Growing minorities and swing states
The following table reflects the percentages of ethnic minority distribution in swing states, as well as the average percentages of opinion polls in recent weeks compiled by 270Towin:
With the convergence of the two presidential candidates, Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, the importance of minority votes, which some see as the cornerstone of Biden’s progress in these swing states and which will determine the fate of the winning candidate, increases.
The three most important minorities (blacks, Latins, and Asians) represent 37.8% of the United States’ population. These minorities are known for a large religious, ethnic and political diversity, but they traditionally tend to favor the Democratic Party.
It is worth noting that President Trump won the 2016 elections despite the outperformance of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in terms of the number of votes for her by nearly 3 million votes.
Trump won 63 million votes, or 46.1% of the vote, while Clinton won 65.8 million votes, or 48.1% of the vote.
Trump won because of the nature of the electoral college system that fragmented America’s presidential elections into 51 independent elections (the fifty states + Washington DC), and Trump had the superiority, according to the calculations of the electoral college, as he got 306 votes against 232 for Clinton.
This gives minorities a major role in deciding the electoral battle through the ability to resolve the battles of the swing states, which are credited with tipping the scales of one candidate over another.
The party affiliation of black Americans
Black Americans have a long history of affiliation with and closeness to the Republican and Democratic parties. After the end of the Civil War in 1865, blacks considered themselves republicans. It was President Abraham Lincoln’s Republican party that initiated the announcement of the abolition of slavery and the beginning of the Civil War for the emancipation of slaves.
Democrats opposed granting any freedom or political rights to blacks for a hundred years after the end of the Civil War, and no blacks were allowed to participate in the party’s general conference until 1924.
Had it not been for the civil rights legislation initially linked to President John F. Kennedy and then President Lyndon Johnson, the blacks would not have approached the Democratic Party in the mid-1960s, which has continued until now.
Since the mid-1960s, blacks have voted for Democrats, and President Johnson won 94% of black votes in the 1964 elections, and during the 2016 elections, only 8% of blacks voted for Trump, while 88% of them voted for Hillary Clinton.
Map of black voter prevalence
Blacks are prevalent in all US states, but their prevalence varies greatly from state to state.
A large percentage of the black population does not necessarily mean that the state votes for Democrats, as the nature of the ethnic composition of the rest of the population plays an important role in determining the state’s electoral identity.
Some southern states, known as the “Evangelist Belt”, voted for Republicans with a comfortable majority, despite having a large majority of blacks, as is the case in states such as Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama.
Black votes may decide swing states
But the black voice still has a big role in tipping the winner in a number of states where the votes of Republicans and Democrats converge, and whose results oscillate between the two parties.
While the proportion of the black population in several states does not exceed 1%, such as Montana and Idaho, their percentage of the total population increases in several swing states this year, such as North Carolina by 22%, Florida by 17%, Michigan by 14%, and Pennsylvania by 12%.
No Republican candidate can win the presidential election without winning at least two of the four states.
The black population in Florida is 3.8 million, or 17% of the population, and the state’s votes went to Donald Trump in 2016, receiving 49.2% of the vote compared to 47.8% for Hillary Clinton.
The latest opinion polls indicate that Democrat Joe Biden will lead by 49% compared to 47% for Trump, and if black voters mobilize at rates higher than their participation rates in the 2016 elections, Biden will increase the chances of winning in Florida.
As for North Carolina, it has 2.4 million blacks, or 22% of its total population, and the state voted for Trump in 2016 by 49.8%, compared to 46.2% for Clinton.
The latest polls indicate Biden has a 3-point lead over Trump.
As for Michigan state – in which Trump won by a narrow margin of 0.02% or less than 11,000 votes – there are 1.6 million blacks, or 14% of its total population, and the latest polls indicate Biden is 50% ahead of Trump’s 43%.
The same applies to the state of Pennsylvania, as Trump won it in 2016 by 48.1%, compared to 47.5% for Clinton.
The number of blacks in the state is 1.7 million people, or 12% of its total population, and latest polls indicate Biden’s lead, with a score of 49% compared to 44% for Trump.
Commentators attach great importance to the participation rate of black voters in the 2020 elections, especially since previous election data shows that they voted in high rates in 2008 and 2012 when former President Barack Obama was running in the elections, but the percentage was lower in the 2016 elections.
Black voter turnout was at 65% in 2008 and 67% in 2012, but it dropped to just 60% in the 2016 election, according to Pew Research Center data.
Low black voter turnout hurt Clinton’s chances hard in 2016, as swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania lost out, to very little proportions.
While black turnout is critical in the upcoming elections, police brutality, racial injustice against African Americans, and the associated widespread protests across the United States, may be a determining factor in their decision to go to the polls in November / Next November.
Biden’s choice of black woman, Kamala Harris, as vice president, sent enthusiasm into black voter registration efforts.
Voices of Asian Americans
US Census Bureau data indicates that the number of Americans of Asian descent rose in the middle of this year to 5.9%, or 19.5 million Americans.
Asians are spread in all the American states, but they are concentrated mainly in the states of liberal democracy almost certainly, such as California, New York, Washington and Hawaii.
Most of the Asian Americans came from 5 countries: China, India, the Philippines, Korea, and Vietnam.
The average number of Asian Americans in swing states is 3.5% of the total population, which gives them great power that may contribute to determining the winning candidate in those states where the approval ratings of both candidates are close.
A poll conducted from July 15 to September 10 of 1569 registered Asian Americans, conducted by the Asian Americans for Progress and Justice Foundation, revealed 55% of them supported Joe Biden, while Trump received 29% support, and 16 did not specify % Of them are to whom their votes will go.
Asian Americans vote more often than other races because of their higher level of education than others, and their votes will influence the outcome of a number of swing states.
According to National Census Bureau data, there are 600,000 Asians in Florida, of whom 250,000 are voters, in Pennsylvania there are 440,000 people and nearly 200,000 voters, and in Georgia, 400,000 people and nearly 150,000 voters.
Latinos get ahead of minorities
It is expected that 32 million Americans of Hispanic descent will be eligible to vote in next month’s elections, the first time that their number exceeds the number of black voters eligible to vote.
This year, the number of Hispanics reached 61 million, or 18.5% of the total population.
The Biden and Trump campaigns are making great efforts to attract more Latino voters to their ranks, Biden leads the average opinion polls among Latino voters with a support rate of 54%, while Trump has the support of 37% of them, and 19% of them have not decided the direction of their votes.
A poll conducted by the Pew Research Center during the period from September 30 to October 5 of 1,347 Hispanic voters indicated that a two-thirds majority of them granted support and confidence to candidate Joe Biden.
About two-thirds of registered Latino voters say they are somewhat or very confident of Biden to address the important issues as follows:
Dealing with the consequences of the Corona virus on public health by 71%, compared to 62% last June.
The ability to bring Americans together and end the division by 70%, compared to 55% last June.
• Confidence in Biden making sound economic decisions increased by 66%, compared to 58% in the previous June.
Decisive Voices for Latinos
Latino voter turnout is rising in a number of swing states, compounding their importance as a bipartisan electoral force.
And prompted the large and rapid population growth of the Latin minority in a number of states to change the electoral scene in them and move them to the ranks of swing states after they remained for decades guaranteed states for the Republican Party.
Arizona comes at the top of these states, as its Latino population this year reached 2.3 million people by 32%, and Biden is ahead by 50% compared to 46% for Trump, and this reflects the strength of the Latin vote in this state, which traditionally votes for the Republican candidate.
And the situation gets a little complicated in Florida, which has a population of 27%, or nearly 6 million, of Hispanics. The proportion of people of Cuban ancestry is one-third of that number, and their vote for the Republicans and Trump is highly favorable, and on the contrary, Latinos of Mexican and Protestant descent vote for the Democratic candidate.