Home / news / Experts talk .. What happens after the arms embargo on Iran is lifted?

Experts talk .. What happens after the arms embargo on Iran is lifted?

Mohammad Rahman Bor – Tehran

The issue of lifting the arms import and export ban is one of the most important reasons that pushed Iran to remain in the nuclear deal despite the failure of countries to fulfill their obligations, as well as the withdrawal of the United States of America from the agreement and the imposition of unilateral sanctions on Tehran.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement through which it confirmed that, starting today, Sunday, all restrictions imposed on the transfer of weapons items to and from Iran are automatically lifted, and that no decision or statement is required and has effectively entered into force automatically, and that countries adhere to UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani congratulated the Iranian people during his speech on Wednesday – after a meeting of members of the government in Tehran – on the occasion of the end of the arms embargo, describing this date as a “national day”, a victory for the Iranian nation and the shameful defeat of the United States of America.

According to the Iranian nuclear agreement with the six world powers in 2015 and Resolution No. 2231 of the UN Security Council, the arms embargo imposed by the Security Council on Iran in March 2007 will be lifted.

According to the agreement, Iran will be able to buy and sell conventional weapons after 5 years of the agreement, that is, on October 18, 2020, and the ban on Iranian missiles and its programs will be lifted after 8 years of the agreement, that is, in 2023.

Limited options

Experts believe that with the lifting of the arms embargo on Iran, it can now take advantage of this opportunity, but in a limited way, for various reasons, due to its financial problems and economic crises that do not allow spending huge sums to buy weapons, in addition to unilateral US sanctions on companies selling arms to Iran, as well as the lack of Tehran’s desire to buy all types of weapons due to its self-sufficiency in this area.

The former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Hussein Kanani Moghadam, told Al-Jazeera Net that Iran is mainly looking for technology and new technologies to develop its domestic weapons industry, especially in the field of air and naval defense, and not just buying weapons.

Kanani Moghaddam pointed out that Iran is able to manufacture missiles, tanks, helicopters and warplanes as well, so it does not need to buy large quantities of weapons, but if it wants to – the spokesman adds – it is not expected that the United States of America will cause a crisis, especially with Russia, because Iran is actually She has purchased the S300 system and can also purchase the S400 if desired.

Iran’s priorities

Equipping the country’s air force is a priority in procurement plans, as a large part of Iran’s fighter fleet is over 40 years old and in need of modernization.

Also, locally manufactured aircraft such as Kawthar, Saiqa and Qaher 313 do not have much maneuverability against modern warplanes.

According to experts, Iran can buy advanced weapons at a low price by creating competition between Russia and China.

Meanwhile, Iran is putting up the “Sukhoi Su-30” fighter. The T-90 tank and the Russian Navy Sizzler missiles as well The Chinese “G-10” fighter is at the top of its list of military hardware needs.

Arms export

In contrast, Iran could also be present in exporting its military industries from small arms to various types of missiles, drones, military vehicles, speed boats and destroyers.

Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Venezuela – which have close ties with Iran – may all be among the first arms partners, and of course it will be a secret partnership to counter US pressure.

Political analyst Hadi Afqhi believes that the United States of America is interested in selling Iran its weapons more than buying it, because this may open a door to economic expansion, which will reduce American pressure to the maximum degree, and this is what US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicated.

And Afqhi said in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net that Chinese and Russian companies concluded arms deals with Iran earlier, and until now arms companies in Russia and China are subject to US sanctions, and Iran will not have a problem buying them.

He added that in terms of financial exchanges between Russia and China with Iran, countries agreed to circumvent the US sanctions by trading in national currencies or following the barter system.

Russia and China

Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said during his visit to Russia last month about the military agreements between Tehran and Moscow that the two parties had held very serious talks in this regard, “and we will continue these talks.”

“We have said since the first day that there will be no problem in selling weapons to Iran as of October 19,” said Russia’s ambassador to Tehran Levan Jagharyan, regarding arms deals between Iran and Russia.

In addition to Russia, China is seeking, on the other hand, to conclude a comprehensive agreement with Iran for a period of 25 years, and military issues and the exchange of weapons are likely to be an essential part of it.

It is unlikely that the lifting of the arms embargo on Iran will lead to large-scale purchases from abroad, but Tehran will conduct deals to buy weapons to enhance defense capabilities, confirming its freedom from the sword of sanctions despite US efforts to continue them, and it is also seeking to acquire and develop modern technology. Its weapons by reverse engineering and copying foreign models of advanced weapons.

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