Home / news / Hariri’s initiative … “Shiite silence” and fears of a “Christian knot” hindering the French initiative in Lebanon

Hariri’s initiative … “Shiite silence” and fears of a “Christian knot” hindering the French initiative in Lebanon

In a new attempt to salvage the French initiative, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri was able to break the stalemate that affected the process of forming the government of Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib, by proposing to help Adeeb in naming an independent Shiite minister for the Ministry of Finance, for once “without forming a norm for forming governments in Future. “

This proposal, which Hariri described as “drinking the poison cup,” showed his endeavor to meet in the middle of the road with the Shiite duo (Amal Movement and Hezbollah), who insist on the demand to obtain the Finance Ministry and name all Shiite ministers in the government.

Immediately after Hariri announced his proposal, most of the analyzes went that it resulted from a direct French mandate, after Macron’s initiative reached a critical stage of wasting time.

While it was surprising that former prime ministers (Fouad Siniora, Najib Mikati and Tamam Salam) disavowed Hariri’s initiative, describing it as “personal,” no official position on it has yet been issued about the Shiite duo, except for conveying some positive atmospheres, on the basis of They need research and consultations.

Will the “Shiite” duo adopt Hariri’s proposal?

Hariri’s proposal reveals that he changed his reading of the contents of the French initiative, after he was adopting two basic principles for forming the government, namely portfolio rotation and lack of political representation in the government.

As for the striking position, it was issued yesterday, Wednesday, by the Presidency of the Republic in a statement in which it announced that the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, “is concerned with the immediate formation of the government and the issuance of the formation decree in agreement with the designated Prime Minister.”

Soon, the French Foreign Ministry welcomed Hariri’s proposal to assign the Finance Ministry to a Shiite figure chosen by the President-designate from among the 10 names proposed by the Shiite duo.

In the context, the parliamentarian of the Future Movement, Muhammad Hajjar, points out that Hariri’s proposal came after his assessment of a sensitive stage in which the country is facing a fateful French opportunity “to break its international isolation and open the doors for aid to it, especially after the catastrophic explosion of Beirut’s port.”

Hajjar rejects, in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net, describing Hariri’s proposal as a “concession”, and considers it an exceptional initiative that came to dissolve the French initiative and stop the blackmail it is being exposed to internally and externally, “without that means allowing the constitution to be bypassed.”

Hajjar also denies the French formula for direct payment of Hariri’s proposal, noting, however, that France’s direct contact with Hariri does not stop.

Macron’s initiative faces internal and external complications (Anadolu Agency)

Variation or distribution of roles?
Regarding the position of former heads of government, information by Al-Jazeera Net indicates that there is a discrepancy between the four corners of the Presidents Club, and that Hariri’s proposal met with opposition from his colleagues when it was presented to them, so he proceeded alone.

While some believed that this “disparity” was a process of distributing roles, Al-Hajjar would only say, “Some may describe Hariri’s proposal as political suicide, and the remaining heads of government have an opinion that we respect, but the priority is to save the French initiative before it is too late.”

For his part, writer and political analyst Johnny Mounir considers that the difference in the position of former prime ministers was logical, and that it stemmed from observations about the formal arrangement of Hariri’s proposal and not an objection to its content.

He tells Al-Jazeera Net that this discrepancy is comforting to Hariri, “because if his initiative does not succeed, he can rely on their position to take a step back,” he said.

As for the writer and political analyst Radwan Aqil, he reveals that Hariri’s proposal was not new to the “Shiite duo.” Rather, the French President had previously put it to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in his last phone call with him, and it became a list of Shiite names to take over the finance portfolio in the possession of those concerned in France and between My hand is a writer.

Aqil describes Hariri’s proposal as a “quarter step”, while the “Shiite duo” – according to Aqil – rejects Adib’s intention to name any Shiite figure in the government without reference to them. Aqil indicated to Al-Jazeera Net that despite moving the wheel of the French initiative, it revealed that Hariri is “the original president of the mission government, which negatively affects Adeeb’s mission,” he says.

Christian knot?
On the other hand, some of the forces saw that reminding the President of the Republic that he is interested in forming the government paves the way for interference in naming Christian ministers, just as the atmosphere of the parliamentary bloc of the Free Patriotic Movement – headed by Gebran Bassil – hinted that Hariri’s proposal constitutes a constitutional transgression, considering that the prime minister designate is the one who chooses the ministers alone. .

In the context, May Khraish, Vice President of the Free Patriotic Movement for Political Affairs, explains that the President of the Republic and the movement support every proposal that breaks the wall of deadlock in the French initiative, “provided that it is integrated with the constitutional texts, especially since the formation of the government needs the signature of the President of the Republic as an effective partner in the mandate and composition.” And to the confidence of the parliamentary blocs. “

She told Al-Jazeera Net that Bassil’s current stance is clear regarding its refusal to participate in the government, “but on the other hand, we do not accept the abolition of our popular and political representation as a counterweight in the country.”

Khreich points out that the current will not give parliamentary confidence to the government “unless it is productive, effective and reformist from its prime minister to its ministers.”

The obvious question here appears, will the government be born by handing over the bag of money to a Shiite figure who obtains the consent of the couple? In this context, Radwan Aqil believes that the government will not see the light by dissolving this problem, and it is likely that the President of the Republic will refuse to stand idly by in front of the selection of Christian names in the government, considering that his statement indicated that, and “has carried an implicit accusation of Hariri of unconstitutional appropriation of the formation process.”

This is confirmed by Johnny Mounir, who considered that Hariri’s proposal would transfer the government battle to another place, and it is also likely that pressure will emerge from Aoun and the National Movement to intervene in the formation process in an effort to represent them in the government.

The political crisis in Lebanon is at a standstill despite the approaching anniversary of the Beirut bombing in its second month (European)

US sanctions
Mounir goes as far as to consider that the transfer of Aoun and his political team to the bank of Hezbollah in the government formation process may result in the US sanctions soon affecting Christian figures close to Aoun’s political team.

On the other hand, Radwan Aqil affirms that the Shiite duo’s insistence on representation in the government is a result of fear of the continuation of the series of sanctions, in addition to raising issues on the government table that are incompatible with the policy of the two, the first of which is the demarcation of the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel.

And in light of the successive US sanctions, “the Shiite component in Lebanon has become energized with its political and religious wings, due to its feeling of targeting and attempts to restrict it externally and its internal opponents who found in the sanctions a way to adapt it,” according to Aqeel.

Observers do not hide that despite the importance of Hariri’s initiative in reviving the French initiative, which was faltering, it may have moved attempts to form the government towards a new square for the crisis that seems to be raging until today in Lebanon.

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