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Is Iran betting on Biden winning instead of Trump?

The administration of US President Donald Trump is betting on the possibility of reaching a new nuclear agreement with Iran one month after winning the presidency for a second term, but Tehran hopes in return that the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, will win the third elections of next month, and turn the page on Trump and his “hard-line” policies.

And the statements of US National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien came that the sanctions imposed on Iran will continue in the event that Trump remains in the White House, to send a message to Tehran – according to observers – that the policy of maximum pressure will continue until Iran acquiesces and accepts negotiations on a new agreement.

Yesterday, the international embargo imposed on Iran’s purchase and sale of weapons ended without referring to the Security Council, but in practice it is a very sensitive and very complex stage in which the regional and international overlap, according to experts.

And US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo affirmed in a statement issued yesterday that “exporting conventional weapons to Iran is a violation of Security Council Resolution 1929, and purchasing any weapons or ammunition from them is a violation of Security Council Resolution 1747.”

Seeing Biden

Biden presented his full vision of the future of relations with Iran in an article he wrote for “CNN” last month, in which he indicated that he has a three-dimensional vision to deal with Tehran.

The first dimension relies on a commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and the second provides for the presentation of a clear roadmap to return to diplomacy.

The Democratic candidate also believes that if Iran returns to “strict” compliance with the nuclear agreement, the United States will rejoin the nuclear agreement with it as a starting point for negotiations again.

Experts confirm that Tehran favors Biden winning the presidency (Getty Images)

Biden indicated that he would work with allies to strengthen and expand the terms of the nuclear deal, while addressing other issues of concern. This includes working hard to release the detained Americans, and calling on the Iranian regime to stop its ongoing human rights violations.

“We will work to help our partners reduce tensions and help end regional conflicts, including the disastrous war in Yemen,” he added.

He also pledged to take steps to ensure that US sanctions do not impede Iran’s confrontation with the emerging Coronavirus (Covid-19), pledging, on the first day of his rule, to cancel the “infamous” travel ban imposed by Trump and targeting a number of Muslim-majority countries, including Iran.

The third dimension of Biden’s vision for the future of relations with Iran is to continue to act against its “destabilizing activities that threaten US friends and partners” in the region. He affirmed that his country would continue “to use targeted sanctions against Iran’s violations of human rights, and its support for terrorism and the ballistic missile program.”

Iran prefers it democratically

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Sina Azoudi, an expert at the Atlantic Council and a researcher at the Foundation for Gulf States Studies, considered that Iran “officially announced that it does not prefer one candidate over the other.”

“Even Foreign Minister Zarif said earlier that Iran is planning its policies assuming Trump wins. However, I think Tehran favors the Biden administration because it is very likely that he will return to the JCPOA and lift some economic sanctions on Iran,” Azoudi added.

He added that in the past four years, Iran and the United States have twice approached the brink of war, so Iran sees a much more threat in the event that Trump wins. However, “I want to emphasize that Trump himself has no interest in starting a war with Iran. Rather, the hawks are from It is about him who are pushing the two countries to the path of confrontation. “

For his part, spoke – to Al Jazeera Net – Michael Rubin, a former official at the US Department of Defense and an expert at the “American Enterprise” Institute, affirmed that “Iran really prefers Biden to reach the White House.”

Rubin considered that Tehran is driven by two motives in this direction, first, that it – meaning the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the security services – will not forgive Trump for ordering the attack on Qassem Soleimani … the Iranians have long memories, and the Iranian leadership will not forgive or forget his death.

He considered that the second motive for Tehran’s preference for Biden is due to “the Iranian government’s belief that Biden wants to negotiate and that they can maneuver diplomatically. At the very least, Tehran believes it can benefit from political pressure from progressives in the United States to demand greater concessions in exchange for any agreement.”

Difficulties returning

The expert at the Atlantic Council returned to Al Jazeera Net, talking about the difficulties of returning to the nuclear agreement, saying, “Biden has pledged to return to the nuclear agreement after winning the next elections. I think he will seek to re-enter the deal, but he will face two obstacles.”

On the first obstacle, Azoudi said that the Trump administration has, over the past years, embarked on a scorched-earth policy to destroy as much as possible (of the rapprochement / agreement with Biden) to make the latter administration difficult to easily return to the agreement. As for the second obstacle, it relates to “Iran’s internal policy itself … and the next presidential elections in Iran are scheduled to take place in June 2021 (and Rouhani and his team may) leave office.

He predicted that “internal politics in Iran will shift to the right as the army gains more influence, so Biden and Rouhani will only have a few months to determine the possible return to the United States, and it is not clear whether the next Iranian president will be open to the United States.”

Azoudi indicated that he expected that “Biden will seek to expand the scope of the Iranian agreement to include other issues, which will impede and make it difficult to adhere to the terms of the agreement.”

In the context, Rubin considered that “many Biden supporters believe that he can reformulate the deal. But the reality is that he cannot, because the deal had a time frame associated with it, which means that some restrictions are subject to lapse clauses, which are parts of the deal that will end Basically validity. “

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Rubin concluded by saying that the Democratic candidate may think that he can simply re-enter the deal, but in reality, he will join once again a deal that has been slowly resolved anyway. This, in turn, means that the Iranians will view any renegotiation as largely starting from scratch, or at the very least requiring years of negotiations and new concessions to win a new agreement.

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