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Italian coronavirus cases likely ’10 times higher than reported’

Italian coronavirus cases likely ’10 times higher than reported’

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38 comments

  1. This is actually good news provided that all of most of those tens of thousands recovered .

  2. So the other people who had mild cases, while not scientificly proven yet, will likely have some degree of immunity which will build the overall herd immunity. A lot of mild cases is a good thing as long as they are not spreading to others.

    The pandemic is only going to end when people develop immunity either through vaccine or from getting it.

  3. Well, duh, just like every other country. Not everyone can be tested.

  4. This is probably true for most of the world

  5. The people working from home are probably also 10 times higher than they report

  6. I’ve been thinking this for a week or so. Nearly 10% mortality rate is staggeringly high. 600,000 infections seems much more likely and it’s reassuring to know the vast majority of infections are minor enough or even undetected to not warrant testing

  7. A report from the vo euganeo test says rhat around 75% of the community that tested positive was asymptomatic, the article Is in italian so i cant post the link

  8. >~~Italian~~ Worldwide coronavirus cases likely ’10 times higher than reported’

  9. This has been obvious since weeks ago. Could easily be more than 10x higher, actually. Comparing the statistics coming from Italy to those countries which are able to test more rigorously like Germany or South Korea should make this pretty clear.

    Italy has roughly 2 times the cases of Germany, yet 45 times as many deaths. That doesn’t mean the virus is 20+ times more lethal in Italy, it just means the number of cases is drastically larger in Italy and they are only able to test those with severe symptoms. Naturally, if you mostly test those in risk groups or those with already developed severe symptoms you end up with a high mortality rate and that mortality rate is not representative of the average population.

    Hopefully the worst affected communities in Northern Italy will soon start approaching some levels of herd immunity. That in combination with warmer weather approaching might put an end to the terrible situation there.

  10. Also Oxford University study is also querying the recent models.

    https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

    Full study is here

    The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

    If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

    “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

    The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

    The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

    However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

    The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

    The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.

    But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.

    Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.

    To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.

  11. US lawmakers also likely 10 times higher than reported

  12. There Is no hiding here, of 7/10 cases are asymptomatic obviously there are more than reported, when and if they will do mass testing we will know the true number.
    I’m from Italy

  13. China and USA as well, for various reasons.

  14. Why are the people in the picture holding both Italian and Cuban flags, and holding a picture of Castro?

  15. this is correct, and should put things into perspective.

  16. This seems like common knowledge for many weeks now. There are far more cases than we think due to asymptomatic cases and limited testing. The official figures may represent growth in testing capability coming online as much as growth of the disease itself.

    From what I have been reading the CFR (case fatality rate) is likely well below 1%, maybe as low as .2%. But it’s notoriously hard to come up with an accurate number for that during a pandemic.

  17. Everyone’s cases are likely 10 times higher than reported. There’s a ton of reasons why people with and without symptoms are going to refuse to get tested.

  18. Isn’t that the standard? For every case we know about and treat there are 10 more?

  19. The numbers in the US right now are probably off by that much if not more right now.

  20. so lethality is 10 times less than reported…

  21. does that mean the hospitalization and death rates are lower than previously reported?

  22. You have to understand Italians are very affectionate

  23. This would actually be a good thing, as it would mean their mortality rate was quite a bit less than the 9.8% they have now. There’s still close to 7,000 dead so far, so that’s small consolation to anybody that’s lost somebody to this, but it means it’s not quite as bad as it seems and would square with some of the data we’re seeing from other countries.

  24. Considering the USA is on track to surpass Italy, does this mean that mass graves in America?

  25. Which makes the death rate ten times lower and also means many more have recovered with immunity.

  26. China says they’ve got the thing licked, but I don’t see how that is possible. Even given a severe, heavy-handed response, it should be all over their country. But surely we’d have heard something? Even they can’t control information that tightly, right?

    None of it makes sense.

  27. It’s probably the same everywhere. If not moreso since there are limited tests and testing agencies.

  28. And it doesn’t matter. We are already on quarantine so let’s just assume 100% of the population has the virus and let’s just treat that 2% that is highly affected by it. Testing everyone while they are already in quarantine is just plain stupid and useless.

  29. It’s likely this way everywhere else as well, especially some countries like Australia haven’t even had testing available to people except ones coming in to the country, so we know how many have come in with it, we have no idea how many it spread to….

  30. Same for the US. Most places are pretty much only testing extreme cases, the elderly, or celebrities.

  31. And more than likely that China is underreporting.

  32. Same for every country.

  33. I expect this is the case in many of the heavily hit countries.

    Some are tracking it and making good progress. The ones being run over (US, Italy, Iran, etc.) probably have far more cases than reported because they can’t (or don’t) test a large enough portion of the population to really know.

  34. I’d take this article with a grain of salt. It’s mostly just speculation by the author made to sensationalize the content. 10x is a stretch. Given the context of Italy’s elderly population, 2-3x would be more accurate.

  35. You get corona and you get corona and you get corona!!!

  36. I’ve been saying this a lot. For example in the USA, I had a few friends who were sick as all hell that couldn’t get tested. It’s super hard to get tested if you think you have it. You pretty much have to be dying. They were just told to stay home and feel better. So none of them added to the statistics. On the diamond princess, half of the infected passengers had no symptoms at all. None. Not even a sore throat. Obviously those people wouldn’t be tested. They were on that boat because everyone was getting tested.

    It seems likely that 20x the reported number have and have had this illness now.

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