British Prime Minister Boris Johnson surprised the European Union countries when he announced in a brief speech that the option to leave the European Union without an agreement is soon, calling on his citizens and businessmen in his country to prepare for this option; Which caused a stir in the United Kingdom and in the corridors of the European Union.
The position of the British Prime Minister came in line with a promise he made before his country’s parliament, that in the event that no progress is achieved in negotiations with the European Union on October 15, he will be forced to withdraw from the European Union without any agreement.
London stepped up its accent in front of the Europeans; Hours after Johnson’s speech, which some saw as an attempt to pressure the Europeans to make concessions to reach an agreement, the Prime Minister’s position was clear by announcing that the European delegation expected to visit the country next week, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “will have to show changes Radical in the formula of the agreement, otherwise there is no need for his trip to London. “
The same spokesman considered that the negotiations – and in their current form – had ended for the European Union, for the British government to receive the ball in the court of the Europeans, who were apparently surprised by the intensity of the British rhetoric.
Sovereignty is a red line
The British government is marketing the justification for regaining control over full sovereignty, for its categorical refusal to continue trade negotiations with the European Union, and the kingdom’s fault on the Europeans that they are trying to achieve half the exit for the British by keeping British waters, subject to European laws, in order to facilitate fishing for European ships, and that the British government does not have the decision The last in the number of European vessels with fishing rights in British territorial waters.
The fishing file was one of the major points of contention, especially between France and Britain, and the latter insisted that determining the number of ships and fishing dates for European ships in British waters would be in the hands of London alone.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson does not tire of repeating his demand for the Europeans to conclude a trade agreement in the form of a trade agreement that brings together the European Union and Canada, as this agreement does not give the Europeans the right to interfere in the standards of agricultural products, nor does it impose any conditions on Canada regarding its territorial waters or Up to its limits.
The British government believes that the appropriate agreement for it is an agreement that restores sovereignty over all its sea and land borders, and also does not guarantee any interference by the European Court of Justice in any British commercial issue, nor does it impose on Britain to abide by any standards related to food products, but – in return – it achieves The condition of free trade exchange between the two parties, and customs exemption between the two sides.
In their speech to the British, the Europeans mix between carrot and stick; Immediately after Johnson’s statements calling for preparations for exit without an agreement, the French president came out to assure that the Europeans would not compromise their interests “only to please British Prime Minister Boris Johnson,” stressing that “leaving without an agreement is better than a bad agreement.”
On the other hand, Germany is trying – as usual – to maintain a moderate position, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not completely close the door to the possibility of reaching an agreement in the end, which is what even the European Commission President, who announced that she is going to Britain next week to raise the pace of negotiations between the two parties .
But it does not hide European attempts to avoid exit without a trade agreement. Britain is an important trading partner for the bloc, and in the event of its exit without any agreement, Europe will find itself in front of more than one competitor; On the part of Britain, on the side of Turkey, and then the United States, which seeks to conclude a huge trade agreement with the United Kingdom.
The British Central Bank is the first to fear the scenario of Brexit from the European Union without an agreement, and has repeatedly stressed that the country’s economy may be exposed to a contraction similar to what happened to it after World War II, and the effects of this option will not exceed until years later.
A thesis supported by many studies, including what was issued by the “Economic Performance Center” of the London School of Economics, which said that if the commercial dealings between the two parties moved to relying on the standards of the World Trade Organization instead of the standards of the single market, and without benefiting from the exchange of war agreement; This situation will reduce the gross domestic product per capita by between 3.5 and 8.7%, over the next ten years.
While the figures issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development reveal the size of British exports losses in the event that a new agreement is not signed with the European Union, amounting to 16 billion dollars, which constitutes approximately 7% of the volume of British exports to the European Union.
The troubles of the British economy – according to the UN institution – are increased by the negative effects being transmitted to non-European countries, which have preferential trade relations with the European Union, such as Turkey, Mexico, Canada and South Africa. These countries will raise duties on British goods as soon as the Kingdom leaves the European bloc, noting that one third British exports go to the European Union, and the second third to countries that have a trade agreement with the Union; This complicates the situation for products bearing the “Made in UK” label.
As for Bloomberg Economic Agency, it chose to devote a study to measure the size of the loss suffered by the British economy since the start of the Brexit process in 2016, and the result was shocking, with the size of the losses reaching 170 billion dollars, and the study expects that if no agreement is reached during this year, the losses of the UK economy will increase. To $ 200 billion.