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Lockdowns can’t end until coronavirus vaccine found, study says based on the Chinese experience

Lockdowns can’t end until coronavirus vaccine found, study says based on the Chinese experience

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31 comments

  1. Lockdowns are only in place so that after the curve is flattened, it means hospitals can take in patients and not get overwhelmed. The virus will still be around.

  2. ‘Flatten the curve’ actually means the same number of infections over a longer period. The integral is the same.

  3. That’s not going to work. Try again

  4. The outcome will be a decision that herd immunity will be acquired by the 80% least vulnerable and we shield the weak at home whilst that process goes on.

    It will be done under the cover of “its safe to open up now” followed by “time for a short lock down”. The avoids overshooting health service capacity to save the healthier people who are acquiring and spreading herd immunity.

    All of this depends on sars-cov-2 not hiding in the CNS and emerging back into the body from time to time.

    Something we’ve been seen hints of for over 3 months from researchers…

  5. This is exceptionally misleading and sensationalist. You’re prompting an extreme response here.

    1. China hasn’t got a vaccine, but Wuhan has been released from isolation / quarantine. What is the purpose of this article?

    2. All data from China is being “doubted”, why do you think governments in other countries are using this as a basis for advice?

    3. No governments are consistent in their current reporting on health impacts, deaths, economic impact, subsidiary social impact and all are taking marginally or completely different approaches. This sort of blanket statement is completely irresponsible.

    4. Fearmongering is all this article is. What is the greatest anxiety at the moment, lack of certainty or control over the outcome. This article is purely playing into that fear.

    These articles and the speculative fear they prompt are why so many avenues of communication are being bombarded with conspiracy theories, misinformation, hoaxes etc. Bloody irresponsible, sensationalist journalism that would sit better in a drama show on television.

  6. If it lasts much longer I imagine they start releasing us by age group, youngest to eldest, with sick and compromised kept at home the longest. They’re clearly trying to come up with some test to show you’re not going to catch it again. If they can’t find one soon people will revolt.

  7. Taiwanese living in Australia here. Personally not stigmatized against China but definitely not trusting any statistics coming out of there lmao.

  8. You can’t do that. Even talking about that will cause panic which is very bad during pandemics. Do you really believe everyone will be willing to be locked up for that long, even all the #staythefhomer’s on Twitter will eventually get back out there, it will probably take a while, but they will get bored eventually. Not to also mention if you do that millions will wind up in poverty and printing money to try and keep people happy won’t work forever. Not to also mention we might never even find a vaccine.

  9. People can’t afford to be locked down for longer periods of time. It is simply not sustainable. There are already countless stories with poor folks struggling to have food on the table and if this continues for way longer with many folks jobless and starving, you can’t expect them to comply for too long.

  10. People act like this is a death sentence. We can end the lockdown when we get the rate of infection under control and learn how to live in ways that limit its spread. As long as we keep that rate below that which our healthcare system can handle then we can get back to some normalcy

  11. What is really needed is a “CoronaPass” something like a permit that shows immunity and those people can restart the economy.

  12. There is no way to know what the correct way forward is. Both options will resort in the deaths of different selections of people. It is like the morale dilemma of the trolley problem on a planet wide scale. How can you make a decision to decide which people will live and which will die.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg1d8U6VWjQ

  13. I think the best strategy is to maximise treatment capacity becuase it will accomodate greater levels of return to normality.

  14. >China’s aggressive controls over daily life have brought the first wave of Covid-19 to an end, say researchers based in Hong Kong. But the danger of a second wave is very real.

    Then why have they ended the lockdown?

    I’m so sceptical of what the chinese say now that part of me thinks this is misinformation from China designed to keep the west locked down so they can garner an economic advantage out of all this.

    I hope our leaders haven’t just been being bombastic regarding china.

    Shit really needs to change when covid is managed.

  15. I think I’m going to see which country handles this the best and when this is over try to move there.

  16. So the best mitigation strategy is to implement sustainable social distancing recommendations which can last over time and people will adhere to if you build in some social stigma around not following those recommendations as time goes … like Sweden

  17. Vaccines are not going to be ready until AT LEAST 2021 July, maybe later. so it’s not going to work

  18. Yeah tell that to everyone that now has no job, no income and still being forced to pay rent and mortage.

  19. that’s not realistic unfortunately. We have 3 options. 1. lockdowns persist until a vaccine is found which could take years. Everyone goes broke. mass starvation. homelessness happens

    2. lockdowns persist until a vaccine is found. Governments do support everyone. (seems to be in the form of loans for businesses and whatnot which isn’t sustainable long term. They will eventually go under due to to many loans)…. Cash and resources can and will dry up. repeat scenario 1. it’s just delayed is all.

    3. people eventually go back to work. Infections come and go. People will have to be vigilant about wearing masks, keeping their distance, but still get work done. People will die.

    There really is no good long term solution without a vaccine. But staying on lockdown forever until there is one, isn’t really an option. People will eventually just have to change how we live. How we interact. Masks, gloves, distancing. Working from home as much as possible. Technology like touchless buttons. etc… all will have to take place. The trickiest thing is travel though. They’re petri dishes just waiting to happen.

  20. Nope. Not going to work. Countries will just have to risk 1-2% of the population dying.

  21. If we can’t make it through this than we will never be able to explore the universe.

  22. A: the vaccines are already “found”. We known how to make vaccines, what we have to wait for is a year of safety trials to prove the cure won’t do something even worse to you than the disease because we’ve been there done that on that mistake.

    B: It’s literally impossible to keep everyone locked down for a year. That’s so completely not a thing you could get people to do that it’s it’s foolish to even talk about it. The amount of time people will stay inside is ticking down day by day. I’d guess about one month from now even the good ones are going to burst out into the world in huge numbers because at some point you gotta live if you’re gonna live.

  23. Yeah nevermind people’s mental health. Just lock them up for a year and at the same time crash all of the economies at once so even when you end the lockdown, there is no work to be done. Great idea, man whoever came up with it deserves a medal.
    At some point you need to make sacrifices or you inadvertently kill much more in the end.

  24. effective antivirals would obviously be an alternative route to this.

  25. as antsy as people out here are getting, gonna say, good luck.

  26. See you guys in 2022. Well… some of you at least.

  27. so why is China ending the lockdowns then?

  28. Testing, testing and more testing.

    That is really the only way to be able to start opening up the economy again.

    Then it will be sprints to create enough product quickly to last through the next quarantine

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