The two major benchmarks, Brent and the US, are on track to record their first monthly decline in several months, after their decline last week, while the dollar – which is considered a safe haven – is trading near a two-month high against a basket of currencies, so what about gold?
Oil prices fell today, Monday, as the rise in infections with the Coronavirus dampened hopes for a smooth recovery in fuel demand, with fears of a greater glut in global supply.
By 06:52 UTC, Brent crude was down about 1%, to reach $ 41.55 a barrel, after it had fallen 2.9% last week.
US West Texas Intermediate crude reached 39.86 dollars a barrel, down about 1% also, after a decline of 2.1% last week.
Brent is on a downward trend for the first month in 6 months, while West Texas Intermediate crude is heading towards its first monthly loss since last April. An uncertainty caused by the re-imposition of movement restrictions by some countries is covering the prospects for a recovery in fuel demand.
ANZ analysts said in a note, “The numbers of new cases of Covid-19 are accelerating in major US states, renewing concerns that movement restrictions will pose a challenge to the ongoing recovery of oil demand in the last quarter.”
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said today that the global oil market has stabilized over the past few months, and that the balance between supply and demand has been restored, but he warned of the risks of a second wave of cases of Corona (Covid-19).
More crude is being exported from OPEC members Iran and Libya, despite efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to curb production.
And last week, US energy companies added drilling rigs for oil and natural gas for the second week in a row.
But OPEC Secretary-General Muhammad Barkindo said on Sunday that commercial oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries are expected to stabilize at just over a 5-year average in the first quarter of 2021, before falling below that level for the rest of the year.
Variation in global demand for crude; While there was an improvement in China, which is the largest importer of oil in the world, the US and European markets are witnessing a decline in demand.
In contrast, the dollar traded near a two-month high against a basket of currencies on Monday, amid continuing doubts about the economic recovery.
The recovery of US stocks on Friday helped limit the rise of the dollar, which is a safe haven, but signs of slowing Walid’s recovery from the pandemic and political uncertainty kept investors cautious.
Was little changed on the dollar index at 94,530 points. And he had recorded the highest level in two months last week at 94.745 points.
And the green leaf achieved its biggest weekly gain since early April.
Against the Japanese currency (the yen), the dollar recorded 105.36, and against the euro $ 1.1626, after it fell to $ 1.16125 on Friday, its lowest level in two months.
The pound sterling also recorded $ 1.2797, up from its lowest level in two months, which it reached on Wednesday at $ 1.2676.
Investors are now looking forward to the first presidential debate in the United States on Tuesday.
“Few people will try to bet on the election result. They will wait at least until tomorrow’s TV debate,” said Kyosuke Suzuki, Societe Generale’s foreign exchange director.
The Turkish lira fell briefly 1.6% to a record low of 7.8000 against the dollar.
The lira recorded a rare rise after raising interest rates late last week, but the gains faded amid doubts about the impact of this on interest rates in financial markets.
The pound has plunged more than 22% against the US currency since the beginning of the year, to come among the worst performing currencies in the world.
Gold prices rose on Monday, taking advantage of the dollar’s volatility, amid growing political uncertainty ahead of the first presidential debate between US President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, Joe Biden.
Gold rose in the spot market 0.1% to 1861.13 dollars an ounce by 05:03 UTC.
In futures trading in the United States, the yellow metal settled at $ 1865.90.
“Gold will move according to the rhythm of the US dollar,” said Stephen Ince, chief market expert at AxiCorp.
“The biggest movement is likely to be after the presidential debate, as we will have a better idea of the direction of the opinion polls,” he said.