Home / news / Positive repercussions, the challenge of mercenaries, and the 90-day deadline … What happens after the truce in Libya?

Positive repercussions, the challenge of mercenaries, and the 90-day deadline … What happens after the truce in Libya?

The ceasefire agreement signed in Geneva by the “5 + 5” Military Track Committee – representing the Government of National Accord and the leadership of Haftar’s forces – raised several questions about the possibility of its success in light of the continued presence of Russian mercenaries and Janjaweed supporting Haftar in Libya.

The National Oil Corporation in Tripoli announced the lifting of force majeure at the ports of Sidra and Ras Lanuf in the oil crescent region, in addition to the resumption of flights between western and eastern Libya.

According to the ceasefire agreement, the land roads closed due to Haftar’s aggression against the capital, Tripoli, will be opened in April 2019.

Analysts and politicians believe that the ceasefire agreement provides an opportunity to advance the political and economic paths to agree on a new government, and to appoint leaders of the sovereign positions in Libya.

The ceasefire agreement stipulated that the Sirte and Jufrah regions be demilitarized, in addition to the re-export of oil (Al-Jazeera)

Welcome agreement
A member of the House of Representatives meeting in Tobruk – Abd al-Salam Nasiya – welcomed the agreement of the Military Track Committee “5 + 5” in Geneva, calling for a permanent cease-fire in Libya.

In his statement to Al-Jazeera Net, Nasia stressed the need for the Military Track Committee to end the issue of the legality of weapons outside the jurisdiction of the state, and to implement all provisions of the ceasefire agreement within the specified period.

Lack of legitimacy
A member of the Supreme Council of State in Al-Qasim Dabras believes that the ceasefire agreement, if legitimized, may have a positive impact on other tracks, and on the movement of citizens and their movements between eastern and western Libya.

“What is missing in the ceasefire agreement is that it does not stipulate handing over maps of mine-laying in Tripoli and Sirte, uncovering mass graves committed by Haftar’s militia, and handing over those accused of war crimes to the International Criminal Court,” Dabars added.

Debars told Al-Jazeera Net that there are those who consider the “5 + 5” committee agreement in Geneva to be fragile due to the lack of confidence in Haftar and his inability to end the presence of mercenaries on Libyan soil, in addition to Haftar being just a tool and a puppet that moved from Abu Dhabi, Cairo, Paris and Moscow.

Fortify the agreement
In turn, the military expert, Adel Abdel Kafi, considered that the agreement must be issued according to which a UN Security Council resolution must protect it, monitor the obligations contained in it by international observers, and punish the violators.

Abdul Kafi considered that “the period granted in the agreement to expel the Russian and African mercenaries of Haftar is not sufficient to remove all military equipment and weapons that the UAE has funded the transfer to Libya to support Haftar militarily.”

He told Al-Jazeera Net that the goal of the United Nations through this agreement is to install a ceasefire to go further in the political and economic track in order to make a comprehensive agreement in Libya.

Abdul Kafi indicated that although the agreement stipulated that the mercenaries and foreign forces would leave the Libyan lands within 90 days starting from October 23 – the date of the signing of the agreement – Haftar seeks to strengthen his presence by sending new military equipment and increasing the Russian presence. , Which heralds dire consequences.

Positive results
The head of the Astrolabe Foundation for Studies – Abd al-Salam Al-Rajhi – believes that the most positive results of the Geneva Agreement are the opening of airspace between the eastern and western regions, especially since people of the eastern region are prohibited from traveling abroad.

He added to Al-Jazeera Net, “If the agreement is implemented, one of the important fruits will be the withdrawal of Russian mercenaries (Wagner) from the two most important oil export ports, namely Ras Lanuf and Sidra in the oil crescent region.”

Al-Rajhi stated that it would be difficult for the Russian Wagner mercenaries to exit within 90 days without a decision by the UN Security Council, given the recent movements of Wagner mercenaries on the ground, the strengthening of their positions, and their number increased more than 4 times since January until today.

Al-Rajhi considered that Haftar’s representatives had explicitly announced in the Geneva talks that Haftar has no authority over Wagner’s mercenaries, and he does not know their movements, and they have finally started doing work without referring to him, especially since Haftar asked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi for help to get these mercenaries out of the oil fields and ports.

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