Home / news / The balance of power and the map of control .. For these reasons, the 2020 Congressional elections are different

The balance of power and the map of control .. For these reasons, the 2020 Congressional elections are different

On the third of next month, elections for the US Senate will be held for 35 of the 100 seats in the House in which each state is represented by two members, and elections will be held for all the 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

The elected members begin their legislative term on January 3, 2021, which will last for 6 years for senators and two years for members of the House of Representatives.

The importance of congressional elections does not stem only from their direct and traditional impact on the balance of power in Washington, but it is likely that the results of these elections will be decisive for years to come on the American political life in an unprecedented way for several reasons.

On top of these reasons, the Democrats intend to change the policies that President Trump laid down during his four years in power, especially towards immigrants, climate change, taxes and health insurance programs.

Jeff Sessions after announcing the results of his candidacy in the Republican Senate primaries for the Republican Party of Alabama (Reuters)

Senate battles
Parliament members are known to depart from the party line of consensus compared to the House of Representatives, as their elections are held every 6 years, which gives them greater freedom of movement away from the obsession with re-election.

The Republican Party currently has a majority of 53 seats, compared to 47 for the Democratic Party, and elections are held on only 35 seats, of which the Republicans hold 23 seats, compared to 12 Democratic seats.

The Democrats need to win at least 4 new seats in order to reach a majority in the House in which the Vice President favors the scales in the event of a tie between the two parties for 50 seats each.

Opinion polls suggest that Republicans will win 16 of the 23 seats now held by the party, while there are 7 seats currently held by Republicans who have moved to swing between the two parties’ candidates.

On the democratic level, polls suggest that the party will win them out of the 12 seats they occupy, and expect them to lose the seat in Alabama.

Senate election experts predicted that there were real election battles in 8 of the Senate seats.

Based on the above, it is likely that the Democrats will secure a simple majority for the Senate seats or increase the number of their seats more than the 47 they hold now.

Democratic Representative John Kennedy holds a primary election rally in Watertown (Reuters)

The districts that will witness the Senate elections can be divided as follows:

* 11 out of 12 Democratic seats are guaranteed to Democratic Party candidates.

* 16 of the 23 Republican seats are guaranteed to Republican Party candidates.

* The Democrats are expected to lose the Alabama seat, held by Senator Doug Jones, to the Republican Party, and to win candidate Tommy Toberville.

* The Republicans are expected to lose the seats in 3 Republican states, which are Senator Marta Maxali from Arizona, Senator Corey Gardner from Colorado, and Senator Susan Collins from Maine.

* The conflict rages over the 4 seats currently occupied by Republican candidates, namely Senator Kelly Loeffler from Georgia, Senator Johnny Ernst from Iowa, Senator Stephen Danis from Montana, and Senator Tom Tillis from North Carolina.

The task of the Democratic Party in the Senate elections is facilitated by the fact that most of the states that are currently contested and occupied by Republicans voted in the 2016 presidential elections for Donald Trump, and from here it was easy to focus their electoral strategy in attacking President Trump’s record, especially after the implications of the spread of the Corona virus on public health. And health insurance and high unemployment rates.

House fights
A compilation of recent polls indicates that the Democratic Party is heading to continue to hold the majority of the seats in the House of Representatives.

The average guaranteed seats for the Democratic Party of 230 seats, while the Republicans guarantee 183 seats, and 22 seats remain swinging and hotly contested.

Democrats Ilhan Omar (right) and Rashida Tlaib outweigh expectations that they will retain their seats in the House of Representatives (Al-Jazeera)

The continued control of the Democrats over the majority of the seats in the House of Representatives is supported by several factors, the most important of which are:
1- The retirement of many Republican leaders in the House of Representatives, such as Representative from New York State Peter King, and there are 24 Republican deputies compared to 16 Democratic representatives who will not enter the elections due to their retirement.

This draws Republicans the advantage of their expertise and extensive knowledge of constituencies and their ability to raise a lot of money to support election campaigns.

2- The inability of the Republicans to raise funds and donations for their candidates compared to the Democrats, and this is due to the progress of the Democratic Party in reaching large numbers of small donors via the Internet compared to the Republican Party, which does not yet know how to overcome the obstacles of collecting donations from a wide class of supporters who belong to the class Central.

3- Redrawing some electoral districts according to the decisions of specialized courts that came mainly in favor of the Democrats, especially in an important state such as Pennsylvania.

4- Of the 22 strongly swinging seats, 14 are occupied by Republicans, compared to 8 held by Democrats, which is in the interest of the Democratic Party.

It is noteworthy that expectations suggest that the two seats of the two Muslim Democrats in the House of Representatives, Rashida Tlaib, of Palestinian origin, in the 13th district of Michigan, and Ilhan Omar, of Somali roots, in the fifth district in Minnesota, are among the guaranteed seats for Democrats.

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