The popular and political circles in Iraq await the demonstrations tomorrow, Sunday, to commemorate the first anniversary of the launch of what has become called the “October Uprising”, amid speculation about the possibility of restoring its luster to achieve its demands, or that it would be subject to political interests.
It is widely feared that the movement will turn into an arena for settling scores between the government and its opponents, or even for striking at the government by dragging protests instead of its known centers to the Green Zone in central Baghdad, where the government headquarters are.
Concerns escalate with what is rumored that some forces affected by the protests have pushed their arms into the sit-ins that have been open a year ago, to implement a political agenda against the government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, which is inexhaustible, by showing hostility to him, to push him towards his predecessor, Adel Abdul Mahdi, who was forced to resign at the end of the year the past.
The expectations are not absent from the possibility of Al-Kazemi investing street pressure to pass his policies, which have long faced opposition from some political forces close to Iran, especially as he succeeded in attracting a large part of the arena influencers to his side, including those holding high-ranking positions with the rank of advisor.
A large section of the street believes that the revival of October 25 will not be with the intention to start last year, given that the activists dispersed between those who want to fuel the protest, given that the demands of the demonstrators have not yet been met, and those who have political orientations and convictions that have changed, according to political analyst Alaa Mustafa, attributes this to the “emotional outburst” that launched the demonstrations last year.
He added, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that even if Al-Kazemi succeeded in attracting many protest forces, it does not mean that he succeeded in imposing his control over the squares because they are broad in orientation, even if it was mobilized in the past against the political process and parties of an Islamic character, but at the present time it has changed The situation is especially the case with the creation of a government that is counted on it, and this in turn pushes the parties that lost power to push their masses into the squares.
Despite this, Mustafa ruled out the possibility that the parties could control the fate of the movement, but he did not prevent it from affecting its path, especially since the current authority did not succeed in producing a positive case that would enable its supporters to demand the uprooting of their opponents, and this gives all parties the opportunity to appear on the scene.
“Tishreen” has two extensions
The youth gatherings continue to prepare to go to the street tomorrow, to fulfill their demands, which include the detection and accountability of those responsible for the deaths of hundreds of deaths and thousands of wounded protesters during the past months, the assassination and kidnapping of a number of activists, as well as the amendment of the election law.
In this regard, civil activist Ali Al-Makdam said, in a call to Al-Jazeera Net, that those in the political process believe that the danger has disappeared, and thus they are delusional because the “October uprising” is an extension that can be renewed more than before, since the situation in Iraq is from bad to Worse, adding that the parties are still in control of the political situation, and the fugitive weapons are spreading, as well as the deterioration of the economy in return for a clear government deficit.
He adds that for a year the parties tried to disperse the ranks and buy up the debt, but the protesters’ youth set out to arrange their papers and organize their ranks in a high manner to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past year, and to miss the opportunity for the politicians, stressing that the date of 25 (November) will be at the gates of the Green Zone. Near Parliament, and that is a renewal of the means of protest and not limiting it to one place.
With regard to the possibility of directing the movement to a party, Al-Makdam stressed that the demonstrations are not supportive of individuals, but rather decisions that are in the interest of Iraq, including the implementation of the law and the idea of the state.
Alwan Alwan and Al Kazemi the darkest squares
For his part, political analyst Yassin al-Bakri believes that the political arena is divided into more than one color. There are revolutionaries who are not convinced of either the government or the political class. And the reformists, “and a large part of them are close to Al-Kazemi, either because of his belief in him or his hatred of the parties.”
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, he says that some of the anti-Kazemi forces that stood against the demonstrations will try to invest the memory of the protests and play the card that was used against them a year ago, by going to the squares, without implying that they want to do so, or they will rise to the point of dropping Al-Kazemi, for several factors, the most important of which is fear From the sliding situation to the stage of total losses.
Al-Bakri adds: That is why their movements and slogans will be (under control) such as pressure (only) on Al-Kazemi and highlighting muscles, and messages not to go far with your foreign alliances, excluding at the same time the fear of Al-Kazemi, even if you raise slogans against him, which will make the anniversary of October 25 indignant for the parties. In the first class.