Events in Lebanon accelerate after Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adeeb submitted a cable of his apology for forming the government to the Lebanese President, Michel Aoun.
The first field repercussions of this apology were the sudden flight of the dollar exchange rate from about 7,500 pounds, breaking the ceiling of 8,000 Lebanese pounds.
Politically, Adib’s apology warns of the collapse of the French initiative that adopted his mandate, and while the opposing forces began to compete with the responsibility for the faltering formation of the government, it was remarkable that most of them were keen to confirm the continuation of the effectiveness of France’s initiative and work according to its agenda.
Therefore, President Aoun was quick to consider that “the initiative launched by the French President is still going on.” Also, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri emphasized that “the French initiative has not failed. Rather, the approach that leads Lebanon to ruin has fallen.”
At a time when the opponents of the Shiite duo (Amal Movement and Hezbollah) tend to accuse him of obstructing the process of forming the government, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri issued a statement saying, “No one adheres to the French initiative as much as we adhered to it, but there are those who drowned it in contradiction to all established principles.”
As for the ally of the Shiite duo, head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, he stressed the need to revive the French initiative, “with a president who agreed with the country, because any president of a party will not lead Lebanon to the best.”
Who aborted Mustafa Adib’s government before it was born?
The Lebanese researcher on political affairs, Wassim Bazzi (close to the Shiite duo) considers that this apology was not surprising, but rather natural “after Adib violated all constitutional axioms and Hariri’s control over him.” Bazzi believes – in a statement to Al Jazeera Net – that Adib’s exit from the government stadium appears to be a blow to France, but does not mean the fall of its initiative.
Bazzi al-Hariri is accused of secretly working to thwart Adeeb, “in the hope of him floating himself to return to power, at a time when his internal and external circumstances prevented that.”
But Mustafa Alloush, a member of the Political Bureau of the Future Movement, rejects this accusation, and confirms that Hariri was working hard to make the French initiative succeed at any cost.
Alloush said – to Aljazeera Net – that Adeeb’s apology was delayed 10 days after the expiry of the first deadline for the French initiative. The slogan “The constitutional right to participate in the formation,” according to Alloush.
On the other hand, Bazzi asserts that “everything that Hezbollah and Amal movement demanded was a cumulative right over the past 3 decades, and they will not compromise on their gains in light of a sectarian regime ruling Lebanon.”
After his experience with Adeeb, Bazzi believes that the Shiite duo will become more strict in their demands, and also accuses the United States of America of striking Adeeb, especially in the political timing of what he described as “throwing the bomb of sanctions” on each of the former ministers Yusef Fenianios and Ali Hassan Khalil.
As for accusing former heads of government of controlling Adib in the performance of his mission, the Lebanese politician Khaldoun Al-Sharif confirms that each of them contributed from his position in facilitating the government formation process in support of the French initiative.
According to Al-Sharif, it is necessary to return to the original mandate of Adeeb, which was based on forming an important government of non-partisan specialists that would undertake the transfer of Lebanon to the bank of the promised reforms.
Al-Sharif indicates to Al-Jazeera Net that Adib’s apology revealed the failure of the French initiative to form a government of specialists, by submitting it to the blackmail of some political forces that demanded its representation in the government.
For his part, Bazzi expects to reactivate the work of the caretaker government headed by Hassan Diab, before going to the constitutional steps to appoint a new president to form the government, “especially after it became clear that France does not have sufficient experience in understanding the realities of Lebanese politics and its historical complexities.”
External factors hindered the French initiative
Al-Sharif does not expect an agreement to form a government in the near future, and it is likely that France knew of a polite apology in advance, and therefore “will not easily give up on Lebanon because of the failure to form a government, pending the consequences of the US elections.”
For his part, Professor of International Law and International Relations, Raif Khoury, goes to Iran to explain the path of obstructing the formation of Adib’s government, given that the regional conflict is the primary influence on the Lebanese reality.
In a statement to Al-Jazeera Net, he indicates that the facilitation of Adeeb’s assignment coincided with a different political atmosphere regionally and internationally, and “at that time Iran needed to pass a vote in the Security Council on ending sanctions and importing and exporting weapons, so it facilitated, through Hezbollah, the assignment of Adeeb in Beirut before returning to obstruction. “.
Khoury considers that all the attempts made by French President Emmanuel Macron in Lebanon have proven that Iran’s influence in Beirut cannot be underestimated, as it “managed to impede the formation of the government by setting the obstacle of the Shiite ministers.” He recalls the latest statements of Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif, which he indicated In it, the Lebanese file is not one of Iran’s priorities at present, which, according to al-Khoury, means that Iran will not pressure Hezbollah to facilitate the path of the French initiative.
Khoury believes that France faces two options, either to renew its initiative to search for a president to be appointed again, or to resort to placing Hezbollah on the list of sanctions, both political and military, and it is likely to go to the first possibility.
He said, “Macron may try to prevent the collapse of Lebanon completely, because it will reflect on him inside France.” And because Hizbullah is playing on the French weakness – according to Khoury – it will continue to place adverse conditions in the face of France, which does not want the Lebanon card to fall from its hand.
Watch out for penalties
At this time, Khoury expects America to activate its sanctions in line with Israeli demands regarding the demarcation of the borders with Lebanon, and he expects that its circle will expand after the French initiative faltered within 3 levels, all related to Hezbollah from leaders, investors and companies, and everyone who tries to break the financial siege on Hezbollah God, and all political allies, with the Christian allies in the lead.
On the other hand, Wasim Bazzi believes that Macron wants to prove Lebanon a platform for a larger project for him in the Mediterranean, in light of the great struggle for wealth and the confrontation between France and Turkey.
And based on the pragmatism of France, Bazzi expects Macron to quickly deal with a polite apology by taking advantage of the mistakes he commissioned, while Mustafa Alloush is afraid of going to form a political confrontation government run by Hezbollah, and that the French will surrender to that, and then “let them form the government alone and bear the consequences of that.” Alloush says.
The French presidency stated that President Macron will hold a press conference tomorrow, Sunday, to discuss the political situation in Lebanon.