The American site Stratfor believes that it is unlikely that most countries will significantly change their relations with the United States just because President Donald Trump has been infected with the Corona virus, especially since these countries have already taken a cautious approach towards Washington as the presidential elections approach.
She added that as long as the symptoms of President Trump’s injury are mild, the impact of this diagnosis on foreign policy will be limited primarily to gains within the “soft power” of America’s main competitors such as China, as well as potential political and tactical gains for non-state actors, such as Iranian-backed militias. in Iraq.
The site confirms that most government services and initiatives that are managed at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be affected, at a minimum, by any change in the level of presidential interest, and it is likely that the president’s mild illness will not affect these initiatives more than the previous impact of his tumultuous election campaign.
Most of the White House’s short-term foreign policy priorities remained largely idle due to the focus on the upcoming November elections, and many other foreign policy initiatives – particularly at the economic and organizational level – remained locked in bureaucratic and legal measures, and thus their influence would be limited to any exclusion. Temporary from Trump’s interests.
Externally, Stratfor believes that allies and rivals alike have remained wary of Washington due to the uncertainty ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, and some governments may see the injury of the US president as an opportunity to take regional actions and initiatives that are being passed on with the negligence of the United States.
But given the approaching election date, it is known that the US intelligence and defense systems are already on high alert, a situation that will be exacerbated by the president’s health condition. Therefore, the direct impact of Trump’s infection with Corona may be the “soft power” gains of major competitors or from Before non-state actors.
For Russia, China and other countries seeking to confuse and stoke the spirit of division among Americans before the elections, the president’s illness will provide – according to the site – a suitable ground to exploit the severe polarization that the United States is witnessing on social media.
The president’s infection will also provide an opportunity for Beijing to advance its narrative on the Covid-19 virus, criticize the US leadership of the world and question its being a reliable model compared to the Chinese approach.
The new situation will give Beijing a window to expand its offers for cooperation in developing a vaccine against the virus and distributing it, not only with the developing world, but also with the traditional allies and partners of the United States in Europe and Asia, who are concerned about the US strategy towards the pandemic and its approach to creating a vaccine against the virus.
As for non-governmental actors, Stratfor believes that they will seek to take advantage of the president’s illness to garner more support, and a reminder that the United States is not a party that is unable to defeat.
The site adds that, despite this, the illness of the President will not make Washington distracted or unaware of the importance of responding to any armed or terrorist attack against its interests, and we may witness in the coming days an escalation in attacks against American targets in places like Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias have increased. Its missile strikes against American convoys and other targets last year.
The Islamic State and other armed groups may also take advantage of the new “perceived weakness” of the United States, to gain propaganda gains and shine a greater light on its attacks against Washington’s interests.