While Khartoum and Cairo push for the internationalization of the Renaissance Dam crisis and the inclusion of international parties in the negotiations, Addis Ababa insists on the tripartite character of the crisis and staying under an African umbrella.
With Ethiopia approaching the second filling of the Renaissance Dam – scheduled for next July – Sudan proposed forming a quadripartite mediation consisting of the African Union, the European Union, the United States and the United Nations, to reach a binding legal agreement.
The proposal itself was supported by Egypt and demanded the need to develop the negotiation mechanism under the auspices and supervision of the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, as President of the current session of the African Union.
And Ethiopia – according to its foreign ministry spokesman Dina Mufti – had declared its rejection of any mediation outside the framework of the Declaration of Principles Agreement (signed between the three countries) and sponsored by the African Union.
Earlier, Dina Mufti said in a press conference that any proposal outside the “Declaration of Principles” agreement would not be acceptable.
Ethiopian observers have unanimously agreed that Addis Ababa’s refusal of the Quartet mediation was an expected matter, based on the fact that it adhered to the rejection of internationalization in all stages of the negotiations that entered its second decade.
African effort estimate
Political analyst Ando Alm Sesay explains that the Ethiopian refusal comes out of respect and appreciation for the efforts of the African Union, indicating – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – that the call for other initiatives – in light of the presence of African sponsorship already underway and the ruling of which the whistle of the end has not been announced – is an understatement of the union. And from his efforts in seeking a just solution to the Renaissance Dam crisis.
Sesay pointed out that the principle of international mediation is inconsistent with the Declaration of Principles Agreement signed between the three countries in 2015, whose tenth article explicitly states that the settlement of disputes takes place by consensus between the parties, and in the event of their failure they can jointly request conciliation or mediation or refer the matter to the attention of heads of state and government. .
Ignore the complications
As for the researcher, Omar Ahmed, he explained that international mediators usually tend to ignore the complexities and the reality of the ethical position, as well as the existence of gaps in the stereotyped approach to the solutions they offer.
He said that international mediators usually start by calling for the cessation of any activity that would complicate the crisis, which means stopping the construction of the Renaissance Dam and mobilization, and then engaging in negotiations that end with making concessions.
He added that this scenario is a familiar procedure for mediation wherever it is found, indicating that this may be a solution in the event that equal rights are assumed, “However, Ethiopia does not originally have any rights to its water resources, in addition to the presence of opportunistic parties that are well aware of the ability of these mediations to manipulation and exploitation, and American mediation. Clear experience. “
Ahmed concluded that Ethiopia is aware of the consequences of these mediation, and considers engaging in them a mistake in principle and not required by wisdom.
Khartoum and Cairo Agreement
On the agreement between Cairo and Khartoum and its ability to form pressure on Addis Ababa, Ando Alm Sesay ruled out this hypothesis, indicating that the Ethiopian position derives its strength from the African Union’s sponsorship of the negotiations and its commitment to move forward on this path to the end.
Sesay played down the value of talking about a possible change in the position of the African Union due to the proximity of the president of the current session and the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Egypt.
He pointed out that the African Union is a regional institution and its positions are not affected by the arrival and arrival of people, and the sponsorship of the negotiations is administered by the office of the African Union, which is made up of 5 African heads of state.
Researcher Omar Ahmed said that Ethiopia derives its position from the international and African conventions that guarantee its right to development and the use of its water resources, as he put it.
Ahmed added that former US President Donald Trump exerted great pressure on Ethiopia, cut off aid, and incited the bombing of the Renaissance Dam, but Ethiopia remained steadfast in its position and did not budge.
He concluded by saying, “If Ethiopia was able to withstand the pressure of the largest country, then it is more appropriate to bear some pressure below it.”