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What is the likelihood that Trump will die from infection with the Corona virus?

What is the likelihood that US President Donald Trump will die as a result of infection with the emerging corona virus that causes “Covid-19”, and what are the effects of his weight, age and sex on that, and what drug is he currently taking?

Health experts said Friday that Trump’s weight, gender, and age are all factors that make him more likely to develop severe symptoms of “Covid-19” disease, and the likelihood of Trump’s death in Corona according to these factors is about 4%.

But the probabilities are difficult to accurately assess, given that factors such as fitness levels, general activity, pre-injury health and recent medical research can make a big difference.

And a working paper issued by the US National Bureau of Economic Research published in July indicated that the probability of death of a person infected with “Covid-19” virus is between 70 and 79 years old but is in good health is 4.6%, regardless of gender.

David Spieglalter, a professor of risks and a statistician at the University of Cambridge in Britain, cited a device that calculates the chances of survival from “Covid-19” disease, which put the death probability of a healthy white man, aged 74 years and infected with Covid-19, during the height of the epidemic in Britain at a time Earlier this year, at 3 and 4%.

in danger

Spiegelter said that risk is now “assumed to be somewhat lower”, as doctors around the world have gained experience treating the disease.

Michael Head, a professor of global health at the University of Southampton in Britain, said, “The president’s status puts him in the classification as at risk. He is 74 years old and is said to be overweight.”

Information provided by a White House doctor in June places the president in the obese category, which triples the risk of needing hospital treatment, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released in August.

Golf and walking

Even for healthy people between the ages of 65 and 74 who are infected with the Coronavirus, the risk of death is 90 times higher than for those between the ages of 18 and 29, according to data from the American Centers.

Julian Tang, an expert in respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said that regardless of age and obesity, “other current medical problems such as diabetes, high blood pressure, and other chronic heart and lung diseases can exacerbate the symptoms of Covid-19 disease.”

But Navid Starr, professor of metabolic medicine at the University of Glasgow, indicated that Trump is not known to have chronic diseases and is reasonably active. He plays golf frequently and appears to walk lightly, which may help ward off some Risks.


A statement by the White House doctor said, “President Trump has started taking the anti-corona virus remdesivir.”

Remdesivir is an experimental antiviral drug that was previously developed by the US pharmaceutical company, Gilead Sciences, to treat the 2015 Ebola virus.

Initially, the drug achieved promising results in studies to treat Ebola and was later introduced in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but it ultimately failed as an effective treatment.

And the results of a clinical trial conducted on more than a thousand people showed that “Covid-19” patients who suffer from respiratory problems improved by 31% faster when receiving treatment, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the United States.

How does remdesivir work?

This drug mimics adenosine, one of the four building blocks of RNA. And when the virus incorporates the drug remdesivir into its genome instead of adenosine, it becomes unable to reproduce, so fermdisifier penetrates the viral RNA, and destroys the virus.

According to the company “Gilead Sciences”, the drug is used in advanced cases when the patient reaches the stage of acute pneumonia, and low oxygen levels require medical intervention.

The experiments conducted so far confirmed that the patients had recovered from pneumonia, no longer needing oxygen support, and some were discharged from the hospital after 14 days.

Transferred to a military medical center

And Trump said late Friday after testing positive for the Coronavirus that he saw that he was getting better, and he tweeted after his transfer to a military hospital, “I am getting better, I think! Thank you all and love you.”

White House spokeswoman Kylie McKinani said on Friday that Trump will move to a special wing at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland for a few days as a precaution.

“President Trump remains in good spirits, has mild symptoms, and has been working all day,” she said in a statement.

She pointed out that “out of the utmost caution, and on the recommendation of his doctor and medical experts, the president will work from the presidential offices at Walter Reed in the next few days.”

A White House official confirmed that doctors had advised this so that Trump could receive immediate care if necessary, and a source familiar with the situation confirmed that Trump had a mild fever.

Source : Al-Jazeera + Reuters + websites + agencies

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